Working with Cricket Ireland's timeline, that would mean that the next Test nation after them probably wouldn't come around until at least 2030. But who could it be? Which cricketing countries might have it in them to push for the top flight of world cricket in the future?
We all know where the ICC wants to develop the game.
However, I think there is some hope. If the American Cricket Federation, United States Youth Cricket Association and American College Cricket governing bodies were able to join forces, there could be a genuine force for good. College cricket would be especially important, as there is a huge number of Asian students studying in American universities. To harness them, in addition to those players who are converted when young, would be of great help to American cricket. And of course, in a land of a quarter of a billion people, you can be a world player in a niche sport. It's one of the advantages of being huge.
Likelihood of achieving Test cricket: Me winning the lottery at some point in the future.
Because: Not going to happen unless there is some serious headbashing, and then progress that goes against all historical evidence.
This dream could be but a few months from reality.
If, as planned, this venue becomes the premier venue outside the Full Member world, then cricket would be placed firmly on the map of a nation that does not really have a national sport. Cricket could reasonably surpass football, and if it did, then I see little that could stop a massive rise. If Singapore cricket is managed well, and if the new stadium was used to hold, for example, the Asia Cup, then I could see Singapore surpassing several nations with richer cricketing pedigrees.
Likelihood of reaching Test cricket: Pretty reasonable, if all goes well.
Because: A cricket stadium of this quality will put cricket to the forefront of the national sporting landscape.
There are, of course, some places where love of the game is clear for all to see.
However, if the ICC did not object to the inclusion of a Full Member with no prospects of hosting home Tests, and the Afghan board could still profit without home internationals, then the Afghans simply have to keep working hard and they'll get there eventually. The talent pool is astounding. For a country that didn't have any cricketing presence at all until the last decade, to have pacers of the calibre of Hamid Hassan, Shapoor Zadran, Dawlat Zadran, Izatullah Dawlatzai and many more is an enormous achievement. There is huge talent in other departments too. And most notably, cricket was the only sport not outlawed by the Taliban, so it has a completely open vacuum to continue to grow into.
Likelihood of reaching Test cricket: If finances allow, then very likely.
Because: Cricket is fast becoming a way of life for an entire country, which is rarely seen in non-Test nations.
Of course there are other nations who might one day play Tests. Nepal, of course, have a huge following, while cricket is apparently the fastest growing sport in Canada. However, I chose these three for a reason: I chose the nation the ICC would most like to make it, the nation who could spring a surprise on everyone, and the nation most likely to make it.
Do you agree with my choices? I'd love a healthy discussion in the comments section.